(CENTENNIAL, COLO. - APRIL 6, 2020) On behalf of Centura Health, the region’s largest health care system, we expect the health systems’ and communities’ response to COVID-19 to be critically important these next two weeks through at least the end of April and into early May in Colorado.
Our internal forecasting and modeling confirms that the statewide actions by Colorado Governor Jared Polis are positively slowing the spread of this novel coronavirus. Our independent assessment supports the statements provided by officials from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment earlier this afternoon. It is important to note that Colorado is also faring well to date because we have a healthier, younger, and less dense population relative to epicenters across the United States.
Centura forecasting was developed using case counts by state, growth rates by state since their first 100 cases, demographics and population densities, testing efforts, state intervention efforts, virus growth rate trajectories, virus death rates, and the impact in other countries. It was then compared with a variety of available COVID-19 models from leading industry and internal experts – University of Pennsylvania, University of Washington, University of Wisconsin, Oliver Wyman (a leading international management consulting firm), and SG2 (a health care and hospital system intelligence services and consulting firm).
Today, fourteen of our seventeen Centura hospitals are caring for presumptive positive patients in the acute and/or intensive care setting. We are currently using 203 intensive care beds, 552 medical/surgical beds, 96 negative pressure isolation beds, and 112 ventilators for all our patients. While our surge plans will allow us to significantly increase our capacity available in terms of both beds and ventilators, it will require us to deploy caregivers and equipment in some new ways. We have been preparing for this and are partnering with vendors and federal and state agencies to increase our access to personal protective equipment (PPE), supplies, medications, and inpatient hospital capacity.
These are all positive signs, so there is a natural inclination right now for each of us to push to get “back to normal”. I know that COVID-19 has impacted each of us – both at work and at home – and collectively as a state. Like many individuals and businesses, we have felt the economic impact of the mitigation efforts. While many of my 21,000 co-workers are extremely busy and challenged, they continue to respond with courage and compassion, meeting the health and wholeness needs of all our patients – mind, body, and spirit. Other areas of our vibrant 138-year old ministry are quiet these days. Our emergency department, surgical, outpatient, and other elective volumes are a small fraction of what they were last year at this time.
COVID-19 is a very efficient and effective virus. To date in Colorado, 90% of the deaths from the virus have been in our neighbors aged 60 and older and 56% of the hospitalizations have been in the same age group. And, while our efforts to date have been intently focused on lessening the impact of this disease, we are still quite a way from herd immunity – indirect protection from a contagious disease when enough of the population is immune – or a vaccine to prevent an equally destructive second (or third) wave of COVID-19.
Centura still expects to see a significant increase of critically ill patients presenting with respiratory symptoms who will require extended hospitalization and ventilation. In the next two weeks and at least through the end of April (or early May), we will be challenged in ways we haven’t been before, and it will require us to come together as an organization, with our fellow health systems, and as a community like never before.
Despite the temptations after a few positive days, we must stay the course on the proactive, statewide efforts put into place by Governor Polis and his team. We must personally continue to practice social distancing and stay at home. Each of these sacrifices is helping to get Colorado on the other side of the curve and protect the health and well-being of each and every one of us, especially the more vulnerable populations.
We will emerge from this challenge – together as a community – with an even greater appreciation of our strength and connectedness.
The above is attributed to Peter D. Banko, President & CEO of Centura Health.
ABOUT CENTURA HEALTH
Centura Health connects individuals, families and neighborhoods across Colorado, Utah and western Kansas with more than 6,000 physicians and 21,000 of the best hearts and minds in health care. Through our 17 hospitals, two senior living communities, neighborhood health centers, physician practices and clinics, home care and hospice services, and Flight For Life® Colorado, our caregivers make the region’s best health care accessible. We’re on a mission to build flourishing communities and whole person care. We’re Centura Health, and we’re your dedicated health partner for life. For information on Centura Health or any of the facilities in our network, please visit the Centura Health website.
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Wendy Forbes
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720-402-7499
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